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    林中静,长安基金:市场冬眠,等待春天的到来。来源:长安基金尊敬的股东朋友:大家好。18天后,我们将告别2018年,进入新的一年。2018年,在国内去杠杆化和中美贸易关系的双重冲击下,A股市场经历了相当大的下跌,市场情绪也非常低迷。事实上,面对不断下跌的市场,?#19994;?#24515;情和很多投资者一样?#26519;亍?#20294;是,市场越萧条,我们就越需要冷静和理性地看待它。所以?#19968;?#20102;很多时间研究宏观经济和上市公司的各种情况。今天我将和大家分享我最近对市场?#30446;?#27861;。2015年以来,供方改革促进了资源相关产业产能过剩的清理,在一定程度上提高了产品的定价能力,提高了企业的盈利能力。然而,现阶段,由于环境政策不明确和下游需求,资源相关产业的资本支出没有显著增加,生产能力有望在未来保持稳定。然而,需求不足将导致相关产品价格承受更大的压力。受去年相关数据基数偏高的影响,资源相关行业的利润增长率预计将继续下降。此外,除了房地产周期后的相关产业外,中游的制造业和消费品利润仍然受到原材料成本高或需求疲软的影响,利润增长率有望继续处于下?#21040;?#27573;。自2018年以来,由于市场的?#20013;?#19979;跌,A股的整体?#20048;?#27700;平一直在下降,并已跌回历史低位。其中,万德泉A指数的滚动市盈率为13.7倍,接近2014年10月;沪深300指数的滚动市盈率为10.6倍,接近2014年11月。相反,在美国股票市场,目前美国公司的总体?#20048;?#27700;平约为美国股票的17倍,A股公司的总体?#20048;?#19982;美国股票相比具有明显的优势。?#35789;?#19981;包括金融和石化,A股公司的总体?#20048;?#20063;是美国股票的17倍。从A股前四个盈利下降周期的表现来看,在企业盈利开始下滑之前,A股的?#20048;?#19968;般都进行了全面调整。从目前A股?#20048;?#27700;平来看,A股?#20048;?#23545;A股的影响逐渐减弱,流动性和风险偏好逐渐成为值得关注的关键变量。摘要:目前,在市场上很难?#19994;?#30830;定的投资机会,人们更加重视自下而上的投资机会。自2018年以来,市场经历了中美贸易关系的变化、光伏产业的“5.31新政”和药品的“47批量”采购等新情况。这意味着原本依靠人口红利或制度红利的企业经营模式将发生根本性的变化,非经常性损益占很大比例的企业需要更加关注政策的影响。在下行风险背景下,高?#25214;?#36164;产相对稀?#20445;?#22240;此股权资产配置问题仍然备受关注。基于对价值下滑空间的判断,寻找内生增长相对稳定、产业政策环境?#22909;?#22240;素明显的产业是比较安全的。沿着这条思路,?#19994;?#35266;点是从下到上在金融、消费品、新能源汽车、新材料和通信行业寻找投资机会。今年的市场确实感觉相当冷,但是春天就要来了,在此之前,我们需要耐心和休眠,播种可以在春天发芽的种子。祝福你。林中静,长安基金会,新浪声明2018-12—13:Sina发表这篇文章的目的是为了传递更多的信息并不意味着同意它的观点或确认它的描述。本文的内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者根据自己的风险进行操作。免责声明:由媒体合成的内容来自媒体,版权属于原作者。请联系原作者并获得复制许可。本文的观点仅代表作者本人,而非新浪的立场。如果内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考,不作为投资的依据。投资是有风险的,所以我们进入市场时需要谨慎。责任编辑:张富强

lin zhong jing, chang an ji jin: shi chang dong mian, deng dai chun tian de dao lai. lai yuan: chang an ji jin zun jing de gu dong peng you: da jia hao. 18 tian hou, wo men jiang gao bie 2018 nian, jin ru xin de yi nian. 2018 nian, zai guo nei qu gang gan hua he zhong mei mao yi guan xi de shuang chong chong ji xia, A gu shi chang jing li le xiang dang da de xia die, shi chang qing xu ye fei chang di mi. shi shi shang, mian dui bu duan xia die de shi chang, wo de xin qing he hen duo tou zi zhe yi yang chen zhong. dan shi, shi chang yue xiao tiao, wo men jiu yue xu yao leng jing he li xing di kan dai ta. suo yi wo hua le hen duo shi jian yan jiu hong guan jing ji he shang shi gong si de ge zhong qing kuang. jin tian wo jiang he da jia fen xiang wo zui jin dui shi chang de kan fa. 2015 nian yi lai, gong fang gai ge cu jin le zi yuan xiang guan chan ye chan neng guo sheng de qing li, zai yi ding cheng du shang ti gao le chan pin de ding jia neng li, ti gao le qi ye de ying li neng li. ran er, xian jie duan, you yu huan jing zheng ce bu ming que he xia you xu qiu, zi yuan xiang guan chan ye de zi ben zhi chu mo you xian zhu zeng jia, sheng chan neng li you wang zai wei lai bao chi wen ding. ran er, xu qiu bu zu jiang dao zhi xiang guan chan pin jia ge cheng shou geng da de ya li. shou qu nian xiang guan shu ju ji shu pian gao de ying xiang, zi yuan xiang guan hang ye de li run zeng zhang lv yu ji jiang ji xu xia jiang. ci wai, chu le fang di chan zhou qi hou de xiang guan chan ye wai, zhong you de zhi zao ye he xiao fei pin li run reng ran shou dao yuan cai liao cheng ben gao huo xu qiu pi ruan de ying xiang, li run zeng zhang lv you wang ji xu chu yu xia jiang jie duan. zi 2018 nian yi lai, you yu shi chang de chi xu xia die, A gu de zheng ti gu zhi shui ping yi zhi zai xia jiang, bing yi die hui li shi di wei. qi zhong, wan de quan A zhi shu de gun dong shi ying lv wei 13. 7 bei, jie jin 2014 nian 10 yue hu shen 300 zhi shu de gun dong shi ying lv wei 10. 6 bei, jie jin 2014 nian 11 yue. xiang fan, zai mei guo gu piao shi chang, mu qian mei guo gong si de zong ti gu zhi shui ping yue wei mei guo gu piao de 17 bei, A gu gong si de zong ti gu zhi yu mei guo gu piao xiang bi ju you ming xian de you shi. ji shi bu bao kuo jin rong he shi hua, A gu gong si de zong ti gu zhi ye shi mei guo gu piao de 17 bei. cong A gu qian si ge ying li xia jiang zhou qi de biao xian lai kan, zai qi ye ying li kai shi xia hua zhi qian, A gu de gu zhi yi ban dou jin xing le quan mian tiao zheng. cong mu qian A gu gu zhi shui ping lai kan, A gu gu zhi dui A gu de ying xiang zhu jian jian ruo, liu dong xing he feng xian pian hao zhu jian cheng wei zhi de guan zhu de guan jian bian liang. zhai yao: mu qian, zai shi chang shang hen nan zhao dao que ding de tou zi ji hui, ren men geng jia zhong shi zi xia er shang de tou zi ji hui. zi 2018 nian yi lai, shi chang jing li le zhong mei mao yi guan xi de bian hua guang fu chan ye de" 5. 31 xin zheng" huo yao pin de" 47 pi liang" cai gou deng xin qing kuang. zhe yi wei zhe yuan ben yi kao ren kou hong li huo zhi du hong li de qi ye jing ying mo shi jiang fa sheng gen ben xing de bian hua, fei jing chang xing sun yi zhan hen da bi li de qi ye xu yao geng jia guan zhu zheng ce de ying xiang. zai xia xing feng xian bei jing xia, gao shou yi zi chan xiang dui xi que, yin ci gu quan zi chan pei zhi wen ti reng ran bei shou guan zhu. ji yu dui jia zhi xia hua kong jian de pan duan, xun zhao nei sheng zeng zhang xiang dui wen ding chan ye zheng ce huan jing fu mian yin su ming xian de chan ye shi bi jiao an quan de. yan zhe zhe tiao si lu, wo de guan dian shi cong xia dao shang zai jin rong xiao fei pin xin neng yuan qi che xin cai liao he tong xin hang ye xun zhao tou zi ji hui. jin nian de shi chang que shi gan jue xiang dang leng, dan shi chun tian jiu yao lai le, zai ci zhi qian, wo men xu yao nai xin he xiu mian, bo zhong ke yi zai chun tian fa ya de zhong zi. zhu fu ni. lin zhong jing, chang an ji jin hui, xin lang sheng ming 2018 12 13: Sina fa biao zhe pian wen zhang de mu di shi wei le chuan di geng duo de xin xi bing bu yi wei zhe tong yi ta de guan dian huo que ren ta de miao shu. ben wen de nei rong jin gong can kao, bu gou cheng tou zi jian yi. tou zi zhe gen ju zi ji de feng xian jin xing cao zuo. mian ze sheng ming: you mei ti he cheng de nei rong lai zi mei ti, ban quan shu yu yuan zuo zhe. qing lian xi yuan zuo zhe bing huo de fu zhi xu ke. ben wen de guan dian jin dai biao zuo zhe ben ren, er fei xin lang de li chang. ru guo nei rong she ji tou zi jian yi, jin gong can kao, bu zuo wei tou zi de yi ju. tou zi shi you feng xian de, suo yi wo men jin ru shi chang shi xu yao jin shen. ze ren bian ji: zhang fu qiang

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