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民营企?#30340;?#37096;融资_天丰:6个月中招聘广告减少202万个月,新浪财经

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    招聘广告以原标题消失。从招聘?#25945;?#30340;就业情况来看,通过对爬虫数据的分析,我们发现今年4-9月份有202万个招聘广告消失。其中,二线城市下降最快,因此我们排除了季节性因素。此外,我们应该更加关注二线城市的就业问题。50-500家中小企业的经营和就业问题比大企业和微型企业更为?#29616;亍?#27665;营企业广告数量下降,国有企业比重保持不变。利用招聘广告数据,我们不仅可以看到短期政策和宏观风险的微观影响,而且可以看到长期转型升级和工业化趋势。风险提示:有限的数据来源不能?#20174;?#24635;体就业?#38382;疲?#36152;易战可能对出口型企业产生就业影响;招聘广告存在季节性波动。从今年四月到九月,我们在51个工作?#25945;?#19978;搜集了894万份工作广告,其中35%是一线城市,54%是二线城市,5%是三线、四线和五线城?#23567;?#25307;聘季节是每年春节后的三月到五月,所以俗话说“金、银、四”。每年5月后,招聘旺季下降,招聘广告的数量在四月达到高峰。四月份,我们录取了285万份招聘广告,五月份降至208万份,六月到八月份略高于100万份,九月份只有83万份。从纵向看,从四月到九月,202万个招聘广告正在消失。既有季节因素,也有经济因素。由于四月份之前的数据无法掌握,我们无法判断哪些季节因素和经济因素有更大的影响。在消失的202万个招聘广告中,一线城市占15%,二线城市占68%,三线城市占8/3/6%。水平上,2条线下降最快,1条线增加,3/4条/ 5条线变化不大。因此,除季节因素外,我们更应该关注2线城市的就业问题。从企业规模来看,500人以下的中小企业?#26082;?#37096;招聘广告的65%,其中150-500人占22%,50-150人占27%,不到50人占16%。招聘广告分布在500余人,分布在500~1000人,其中11%人在1000人以上,10%人在5000人以上。因此,从就业的角度来看,我们应该更加关注500人以下的中小企业,尤其是50-500人,他们占据了招聘的一半。横向比较,今年四月至九月,我们应该注意的大部分中小企业的比例正是我们所说的:50-150人中小型企业的比例下降了1%,中小企业的比例下降了。1500人的企业减少了1.8%,其他大型企业的比例保持不变或增加,50以下的微型企业比例增加了1.5%。10000以上的超大企业占1%。可以看出,50-500中小企业的经营问题和可能的就业问题比大型企业和微型企业更为?#29616;亍?#26681;据中央银行的数据,今年第三季度,我国中小企业贷款余额的增长?#24335;?#33267;10%(前值为12.2%,而去年同期为17.8%),为2009年数据发布以来的最低水平。按企业所有制计算,私营企业?#26082;?#37096;招聘广告的72%,国有企业占4%,外资占8%,合资企业占7%。总体而言,非公有制企业(不包括国有企业和政府机构)占招聘广告的90%以上。由此可见,民营经济对就业和企业的数量有很大贡献。横向比较显示,从4月份到9月份,民营企业招聘广告所占比例下降了0.4%,上市公司所占比例下降了0.9%,合资企业所占比例增加了,国有企业所占比例保持不变。nchange因此,仅从招聘广告的数量来看,“国进民退”现象虽然存在,但并不明显。中小企业同?#24066;?#39640;,竞争力差,反周期风险阻力弱。因此,在经济周期下滑、需求疲软、融资成本高昂的环境下,企业亏损、破产是正常的。今年的不同之处在于,上半年的影子银行合并、表外融资渠道收紧、环境保护和生产限制的重组,加剧了我国中小企业的融资和经营困难。中小企业,使一些难以生存的中小企业在这个循环中清晰可见,这也是事实。十月以来,中央和地方政府为民营企业出台了大量的救灾政策,应该说是对中小企业和民营企业的经营给予了足够的重视。任何救助政策都不可避免地会带来公平和效率问题,甚至会带来道德风险和潜在危机。至于中小企业和民营企业是否应该得到救助,这是一个政治问题,而不是经济问题。经济学关注的是救援失败是否会导致?#20302;?#24615;金融风险。如果不是,我们应该考虑如何减少政策误解偏差和实施偏差,以及如何提高政策的一致性和可预测性。最后是行业比较。在招聘?#25945;?#19978;,计算了60个行业招聘广告数量的?#26149;?#22686;长偏差(单个行业的?#26149;?#22686;长率-所?#34892;?#19994;的?#26149;?#22686;长率),并比较了招聘广告数量的变化。水平不同的产业。从上到下,?#26149;?#22686;长率从负向正偏离,从小到大。通过比较可以看出,负偏差的产业包括金融、影视传媒、贸易、玩具、家具电器、建筑工程、矿业和冶炼。自今年以来,这些行业受到信贷紧缩、金融监管、文化监管、贸易摩擦、房地产产业?#26149;?#24490;环、环境保护和生产限制的影响。身体分析。正偏差的主要产业是新经济,包括消费服务:人寿服务、保险、租赁、酒店旅游、餐饮、物业、教育和培训、专业服务(咨询、人力、会计)和高端制造业:医药,电子、半导体、集成电路、计算机、自动化、通信等计算机服务。在一些大行业,如金融和银行,也存在内部分歧。

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nian si yue dao jiu yue, wo men zai 51 ge gong zuo ping tai shang sou ji le 894 wan fen gong zuo guang gao, qi zhong 35 shi yi xian cheng shi, 54 shi er xian cheng shi, 5 shi san xian si xian he wu xian cheng shi. zhao pin ji jie shi mei nian chun jie hou de san yue dao wu yue, suo yi su hua shuo" jin yin si". mei nian 5 yue hou, zhao pin wang ji xia jiang, zhao pin guang gao de shu liang zai si yue da dao gao feng. si yue fen, wo men lu qu le 285 wan fen zhao pin guang gao, wu yue fen jiang zhi 208 wan fen, liu yue dao ba yue fen lue gao yu 100 wan fen, jiu yue fen zhi you 83 wan fen. cong zong xiang kan, cong si yue dao jiu yue, 202 wan ge zhao pin guang gao zheng zai xiao shi. ji you ji jie yin su, ye you jing ji yin su. you yu si yue fen zhi qian de shu ju wu fa zhang wo, wo men wu fa pan duan nei xie ji jie yin su he jing ji yin su you geng da de ying xiang. zai xiao shi de 202 wan ge zhao pin guang gao zhong, yi xian cheng shi zhan 15, er xian cheng shi zhan 68, san xian cheng shi zhan 8 3 6. shui ping shang, 2 tiao xian xia jiang zui kuai, 1 tiao xian zeng jia, 3 4 tiao 5 tiao xian bian hua bu da. yin ci, chu ji jie yin su wai, wo men geng ying gai guan zhu 2 xian cheng shi de jiu ye wen ti. cong qi ye gui mo lai kan, 500 ren yi xia de zhong xiao qi ye zhan quan bu zhao pin guang gao de 65, qi zhong 150500 ren zhan 22, 50150 ren zhan 27, bu dao 50 ren zhan 16. zhao pin guang gao fen bu zai 500 yu ren, fen bu zai 500 1000 ren, qi zhong 11 ren zai 1000 ren yi shang, 10 ren zai 5000 ren yi shang. yin ci, cong jiu ye de jiao du lai kan, wo men ying gai geng jia guan zhu 500 ren yi xia de zhong xiao qi ye, you qi shi 50500 ren, ta men zhan ju le zhao pin de yi ban. heng xiang bi jiao, jin nian si yue zhi jiu yue, wo men ying gai zhu yi de da bu fen zhong xiao qi ye de bi li zheng shi wo men suo shuo de: 50150 ren zhong xiao xing qi ye de bi li xia jiang le 1, zhong xiao qi ye de bi li xia jiang le. 1500 ren de qi ye jian shao le 1. 8, qi ta da xing qi ye de bi li bao chi bu bian huo zeng jia, 50 yi xia de wei xing qi ye bi li zeng jia le 1. 5. 10000 yi shang de chao da qi ye zhan 1. ke yi kan chu, 50500 zhong xiao qi ye de jing ying wen ti he ke neng de jiu ye wen ti bi da xing qi ye he wei xing qi ye geng wei yan zhong. gen ju zhong yang yin hang de shu ju, jin nian di san ji du, wo guo zhong xiao qi ye dai kuan yu e de zeng zhang lv jiang zhi 10 qian zhi wei 12. 2, er qu nian tong qi wei 17. 8, wei 2009 nian shu ju fa bu yi lai de zui di shui ping. an qi ye suo you zhi ji suan, si ying qi ye zhan quan bu zhao pin guang gao de 72, guo you qi ye zhan 4, wai zi zhan 8, he zi qi ye zhan 7. zong ti er yan, fei gong you zhi qi ye bu bao kuo guo you qi ye he zheng fu ji gou zhan zhao pin guang gao de 90 yi shang. you ci ke jian, min ying jing ji dui jiu ye he qi ye de shu liang you hen da gong xian. heng xiang bi jiao xian shi, cong 4 yue fen dao 9 yue fen, min ying qi ye zhao pin guang gao suo zhan bi li xia jiang le 0. 4, shang shi gong si suo zhan bi li xia jiang le 0. 9, he zi qi ye suo zhan bi li zeng jia le, guo you qi ye suo zhan bi li bao chi bu bian. nchange yin ci, jin cong zhao pin guang gao de shu liang lai kan," guo jin min tui" xian xiang sui ran cun zai, dan bing bu ming xian. zhong xiao qi ye tong zhi xing gao, jing zheng li cha, fan zhou qi feng xian zu li ruo. yin ci, zai jing ji zhou qi xia hua xu qiu pi ruan rong zi cheng ben gao ang de huan jing xia, qi ye kui sun po chan shi zheng chang de. jin nian de bu tong zhi chu zai yu, shang ban nian de ying zi yin hang he bing biao wai rong zi qu dao shou jin huan jing bao hu he sheng chan xian zhi de chong zu, jia ju le wo guo zhong xiao qi ye de rong zi he jing ying kun nan. zhong xiao qi ye, shi yi xie nan yi sheng cun de zhong xiao qi ye zai zhe ge xun huan zhong qing xi ke jian, zhe ye shi shi shi. shi yue yi lai, zhong yang he di fang zheng fu wei min ying qi ye chu tai le da liang de jiu zai zheng ce, ying gai shuo shi dui zhong xiao qi ye he min ying qi ye de jing ying ji yu le zu gou de zhong shi. ren he jiu zhu zheng ce dou bu ke bi mian di hui dai lai gong ping he xiao lv wen ti, shen zhi hui dai lai dao de feng xian he qian zai wei ji. zhi yu zhong xiao qi ye he min ying qi ye shi fou ying gai de dao jiu zhu, zhe shi yi ge zheng zhi wen ti, er bu shi jing ji wen ti. jing ji xue guan zhu de shi jiu yuan shi bai shi fou hui dao zhi xi tong xing jin rong feng xian. ru guo bu shi, wo men ying gai kao lv ru he jian shao zheng ce wu jie pian cha he shi shi pian cha, yi ji ru he ti gao zheng ce de yi zhi xing he ke yu ce xing. zui hou shi hang ye bi jiao. zai zhao pin ping tai shang, ji suan le 60 ge hang ye zhao pin guang gao shu liang de fu he zeng zhang pian cha dan ge hang ye de fu he zeng zhang lv suo you hang ye de fu he zeng zhang lv, bing bi jiao le zhao pin guang gao shu liang de bian hua. shui ping bu tong de chan ye. cong shang dao xia, fu he zeng zhang lv cong fu xiang zheng pian li, cong xiao dao da. tong guo bi jiao ke yi kan chu, fu pian cha de chan ye bao kuo jin rong ying shi chuan mei mao yi wan ju jia ju dian qi jian zhu gong cheng kuang ye he ye lian. zi jin nian yi lai, zhei xie hang ye shou dao xin dai jin suo jin rong jian guan wen hua jian guan mao yi mo ca fang di chan chan ye lian hou xun huan huan jing bao hu he sheng chan xian zhi de ying xiang. shen ti fen xi. zheng pian cha de zhu yao chan ye shi xin jing ji, bao kuo xiao fei fu wu: ren shou fu wu bao xian zu lin jiu dian lv you can yin wu ye jiao yu he pei xun zhuan ye fu wu zi xun ren li kuai ji he gao duan zhi zao ye: yi yao, dian zi ban dao ti ji cheng dian lu ji suan ji zi dong hua tong xin deng ji suan ji fu wu. zai yi xie da hang ye, ru jin rong he yin hang, ye cun zai nei bu fen qi.

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